The NFL is officially back and so is the Road to 272 Bets!
If you aren't familiar, for the past five years, I've placed a bet on every single NFL game in the regular season. 272 games, 272 bets. Now, I'm ready to begin that journey for the sixth time. It's certainly not for the faint of heart, but it's a fun challenge I love doing yearly.
If you want to hear me dive into my picks further, I also record a weekly podcast where I go through all my picks. The name of the show is the Bacon Bets Podcast, and you can find it wherever you get your podcasts. There's also a video version of the show up on YouTube.
Before we begin, I want to be clear that I'm not a professional bettor. A pro bettor typically only bets on games they feel they have an edge in, which is certainly not what I'm doing by betting on all 272 games. For the large majority of us, betting should only be used as a form of entertainment. With that being said, I do my best to have a profitable season, and I use several strategies to try to achieve that, such as betting at whichever sportsbook gives me the best odds for any given game.
Through my first five seasons doing this, I've finished in the profit in three of them. Last year was my worst season to date, but I'm still up over nine units through the first five years.
2020: 130-119-7 (+5.79 units)2021: 151-120-1 (+25.47 units)2022: 128-135-9 (-12.32 units)2023: 140-129-3 (+3.96 units)2024: 131-135-6 (-13.45 units)Total: 680-638-26 (+9.45 units)
Before I take my first step in this year's long journey, here are the six rules I have in place for myself.
I will place one bet on all 272 gamesAll 272 bets will be a one-unit flat betAll bets will be on a spread, total or moneyline underdog (no moneyline favorites)Must place at least one moneyline underdog bet each weekAll bets will be placed at regulated sportsbooksAll bets will be tracked on my BetStamp account (@IainMacBets).
With all of that out of the way, it's time to begin the 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets. Let's dive into my 16 picks for the 16 games scheduled for Week 1 action, including the season opener between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.
NFL Week 1 Best Bets for Every GameCowboys vs. Eagles Prediction
I think the spread is set at the exact right number at 7.5 in favor of the defending champions, so I'm going to look at the total instead and trust the best unit on the field in this game, the Philadelphia Eagles' defense. This is a defense that allowed the fewest yards per play in the NFL last season at 4.8, while also ranking first in opponent success rate and third in opponent EPA per play.
I'm not ready to believe in the Cowboys' offense either. Despite adding George Pickens in the offseason, people forget that Dak Prescott was having his worst season as a pro before going down with an injury last year. Through eight starts, he completed just 64.7% of passes and threw for only 11 touchdowns with eight interceptions.
I think this total is a couple of points too high for a game involving a team with an elite defense and a run-first mentality on offense.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction
People are writing off the Chiefs this season. Picking them to snap their nine-year streak of winning the AFC West and taking a huge step back. I know their Super Bowl loss is fresh in everyone's mind, but let's remember this team went 15-2 last year. Even as someone who was a detractor of theirs last season, underestimating the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid combination is a dangerous game to play.
Let's not crown the Chargers quite yet. They still have plenty of questions. They have a rookie at running back, one of their starting tackles, Rashawn Slater, is out for the season, and they're still trying to figure out who their No. 2 receiver is. The fact of the matter is, the Chiefs are the more experienced team and are confident in their identity. On a neutral field, I think the Chiefs deserve to be bigger favorites than they are. I'll lay the field goal.
Raiders vs. Patriots Prediction
Betting on Week 1 of the NFL season is all about putting your money where your mouth is on your offseason outlooks for each team. We have nothing to go off in terms of stats and metrics from this season, so we have to base our bets on the previous year's numbers along with roster changes.
The New England Patriots are a team that bettors and oddsmakers are favoring quite a bit this year, expecting them to take a significant step forward in Drake Maye's second season and Mike Vrabel's first as the team's head coach. I'm not ready to buy in on New England yet; therefore, I'm going to bet against them in this spot and take the field goal with the Raiders.
The Raiders' defense was better than people thought last season, ranking somewhere between 10th and 15th in most metrics. Now, with a much more consistent quarterback in Geno Smith, they'll be a tough out for most teams they face.
Bengals vs. Browns Prediction
The Cincinnati Bengals have been a team that you automatically bet against in the first five weeks of the past few seasons, historically getting off to a slow start. I think it's time for that trend to reverse this season as the Bengals' coaching staff opted to play their starters in the preseason, something they haven't done in years past.
If they can come into the 2025 campaign firing on all cylinders, a low Cleveland Browns team might get steamrolled in Week 1. I'll lay the points on a Bengals team that I expect to get off to a hot start in 2025.
Cardinals vs. Saints Prediction
The New Orleans Saints are projected to be the worst team in the NFL this season, and things didn't get better for them when they announced that Spencer Rattler has won the starting job at quarterback over their second-round round draft pick, Tyler Shough. Rattler went 0-6 as a starter last season, completing just 57% of passes, including four touchdowns and five interceptions.
When it comes to the Arizona Cardinals, they've typically been a good bet in September. Kyler Murray regresses as the season progresses, but he can rely on his athleticism more in the early weeks, leading to Arizona being a tough opponent in the first month of action.
With the spread set at below the magic number of seven, the Cardinals are a no-brainer.
Giants vs. Commanders Prediction
I'm banking on the Commanders taking a step back this season. Washington still has one of the worst defenses in the league, and it did little to fix that this offseason. I also don't think the level of success they enjoyed last season is repeatable. Their fourth-down conversion rate of 78.95% is going to be extremely difficult to repeat, and their schedule is going to be much tougher.
Therefore, I'll take the 6.5 points with the Giants when they face a Commanders team that I believe is overvalued in the betting market. New York has a competent quarterback this season in Russell Wilson, and their pass rush is expected to be one of the best in the NFL. That should be enough to keep this game inside the spread.
Panthers vs. Jaguars Prediction
The Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars had the two worst defenses in the NFL last season. They ranked 31st and 32nd in both opponent yards per play and opponent EPA per play. Neither team made significant improvements in those areas this offseason.
I have much more faith in both offenses in this game. Bryce Young looked the best he had in his career in the final few games last season, and the Jaguars' offense, with a healthy Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen in as head coach, is expected to take a step forward in 2025. Both teams will score in bunches in this one, so I'll back the OVER.
Dolphins vs. Colts Prediction
There's been lots of chatter in the offseason and preseason that the Miami Dolphins are a dysfunctional team, but that's propaganda I'm not ready to fall for. We can't forget about the level of talent and speed they have offensively, especially when compared to the Colts' offense, led by Daniel Jones.
Based on talent alone, the Dolphins are the better team in this Week 1 matchup.
Steelers vs. Jets Prediction
Not to say Aaron Glenn isn't the long-term answer at head coach for the New York Jets, but I can't imagine a team with Justin Fields at quarterback being competitive against any competent team in the league this season.
Meanwhile, I'm cautiously optimistic about a Steelers team that has a few new faces in key positions this year. Aaron Rodgers looked much better in the final few games of the 2025 season, and his pairing with DK Metcalf at wide receiver is interesting to say the least.
I trust in Mike Tomlin, who knows how to defend against Fields, the former Steeler. Pittsburgh is the bet to make with the line still under the magic number of three.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction
As high as I am on the Falcons this season, I have several concerns about how head coach Raheem Morris handled his team in the preseason, specifically not allowing any starters to play in the exhibition games. We've seen this hurt teams early in the year, and with Michael Penix Jr. entering his first year as a full-time starter, he needed all the reps he could get in preparation.
I expect the Buccaneers to come into this season firing on all cylinders, while the Falcons will get off to a false start. Lay the points with Tampa Bay.
Titans vs. Broncos Prediction
I'll go to my grave with the belief that last year's Titans team was far better than their record indicated. Abysmal play by their special teams and an incompetent quarterback that continuously turned the ball over in key moments cost them several games. Now, with both those areas fixed, including the No. 1 overall pick being their quarterback, I expect Tennessee to bounce back in a big way in 2025.
I also think the Broncos take a step back this year. Their 2024 schedule ended up being one of the easiest in the NFL, and while their defense was dominant, their offensive metrics were average at best. I'm selling my Broncos' stock and taking the eight points with the Titans.
49ers vs. Seahawks Prediction
I'm all in on the 49ers this season. Don't let their record from last season fool you. They had the highest DVOA in NFL history amongst teams that suffered double-digit losses, and they finished second in the league in Net Yards per Play behind only the Baltimore Ravens. They were the victims of bad injury luck and poor late-game variance. Now, with a healthy lineup, I expect them to re-establish themselves as one of the best teams in the NFC.
I'm also not yet convinced Sam Darnold will be as good this season as he was for the Vikings last year. On top of that, the loss of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for the Seahawks can't be understated. I have no problem backing the 49ers as small favorites.
Texans vs. Rams Prediction
In continuing my strategy of betting against teams I'm low on this year, I'm going to bet against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. Matt Stafford is battling a back issue, and I'm not convinced he's healthy enough to compete at the level he needs to, especially at 37 years old. Meanwhile, the Texans are a better team than they got credit for last season. They're a young unit that I expect to take a step forward in 2025.
It's worth noting that Nick Caley is the Texans' new offensive coordinator. He was the Rams' pass game coordinator last season, so he's going to have some solid intel in terms of what needs to be done to best Sean McVay's squad.
Lions vs. Packers Prediction
I think the Packers were a better team than their final record showed last season. They were third in the league in Net Yards per Play (+0.9), while also ranking eighth in EPA per play and fourth in opponent EPA per play. They also significantly improved their roster in the offseason, drafting Matthew Golden at wide receiver, and most recently trading for star pass-rusher Micah Parsons.
The Detroit Lions may take a few weeks to find their footing with new offensive and defensive coordinators. Starting their season on the road against the Packers is a nightmare situation for them. I'll lay the 2.5 points with Green Bay.
Ravens vs. Bills Prediction
In my opinion, the Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL. They led the league in Net Yards per Play last season at +1.6, 0.6 yards more than any other team. A slow start against the Bills in the playoffs cost them a spot in the AFC Championship, but that's not going to scare me away from backing them to beat the Bills in Week 1.
Baltimore got even better in the offseason by adding a veteran receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and drafting one of the best defensive back prospects available in Malaki Starks. Not to mention, they added Jaire Alexander at cornerback.
The best team in the AFC got better this offseason. The Bills, meanwhile, still have some questions on the defensive side of the football and are still seeking a No. 1 receiver. Baltimore is the better team in this matchup; let's not overthink this bet.
Vikings vs. Bears Prediction
Whether or not you're a Caleb Williams believer, you can't deny how improved this Bears' team is, especially on the offensive line. Meanwhile, this Bears' defense will get to face J.J. McCarthy in his first NFL start.
Let's not crown McCarthy as a great NFL quarterback just quite yet. Sure, the Vikings have some weapons, most notably Justin Jefferson, but I'm not ready to expect this team to be as good as they were in 2024. McCarthy still has a lot to prove.
The Bears are my underdog of the week.
