The underdogs teased the Las Vegas sportsbooks last week when many jumped out to early leads before losing their respective games. The Los Angeles Rams helped the sportsbooks recoup some money after their upset victory against the Buffalo Bills.
Still, Chuck Esposito, the race and sports director at Station Casinos, hopes more underdogs win outright during Week 15 in the NFL. He’s just not counting on the New York Giants to be one of those teams.
It’s gotten so bad for the Giants NFL bettors won’t support them despite the three-score advantage they’re getting at home this week against the spread. It’s a big no-no in sports betting to lay that many points in an NFL game, but bettors are finding different ways to bet against the Giants and aren’t interested in taking the 16.5 points the Giants are being spotted against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.
“It’s just hard with the Giants,” Esposito says. “They’re just not really a good team. It’s a big number in the NFL to lay, but the Giants have no home wins this year, so my guess is we’re still going to see a lot of parlays and teasers and everything tied to the Ravens. We’re going to be Giants fans by kickoff, there’s no question, even with this big number.”
The two-win Giants, who are averaging a league-low 14.9 points per game, opened the week as 14.5-point underdogs at most sportsbooks, but the money against the Giants quickly changed the line and it wouldn’t be a surprise if it cracks 17 points. Last week, Giants supporters were thankful Drew Lock produced a late rally to cover the +4.5 spread and relieved the game didn’t go into overtime after they had their potential game-tying field goal blocked in the 14–11 loss against the New Orleans Saints.
Trusting the Giants to hang for four quarters against a mediocre team is risky enough. You should probably stay away from them against a top contender even if the line reaches 17 points. But that doesn’t mean you should lay the points with the Ravens, who have losses this season against the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns. Take the Ravens with a teaser or avoid this game altogether, especially during a week with many intriguing matchups.
“I find it hard to believe the Giants can muster enough offense to make this close, but this league is full of surprises from week to week,” Esposito says. “A lot of people don’t like laying a big number like that. It’s going to require three scores, but maybe there’s some value with the Giants, but my guess is we’re still going to be rooting for the G-Men.”
It wasn’t that long ago when many viewed the Carolina Panthers as the worst team in the league—that honor now belongs to the Giants or Raiders. Bryce Young has improved as a quarterback and the Panthers have been competitive in most of their games since he returned from his benching.
The Panthers were one of the teams that teased the sportsbooks last week by falling short against the Philadelphia Eagles, but they at least covered as 14-point underdogs.
The Panthers are laying three points at home against the Dallas Cowboys, marking the first time in two years that Carolina is considered the betting favorite in a game. But the Panthers have received too much public support, which will probably keep me away from this game.
“Strangely enough, they haven’t been a favorite in two years, and guess what, they’re the favorite against the Cowboys,” Esposito says. “We opened this game at 1 and it quickly got bet up to 2, and it could go higher. It’s a product of all the injuries the Cowboys have, playing on a short week and how do you get back up from last week’s loss [against the Cincinnati Bengals]?”
For those keeping track, I’m not high on the Giants and Panthers this week, but I do see plenty of value with a few dogs this week, starting with the Los Angeles Rams (+3) at the San Francisco 49ers for . The Rams managed to beat a healthy 49ers team at home in Week 3 when they were ravaged by injuries.
Don’t put too much stock in San Francisco crushing the struggling Chicago Bears last week. They’re now the ones dealing with many key injuries for Round 2 of this NFC West rivalry.
“When the Rams are healthy, that offense is awfully good with [Puka] Nacua, [Kyren] Williams, [Cooper] Kupp and [Matthew] Stafford,” Esposito says. “I think they can pretty much play with anybody in the league when healthy. I think that’s a huge game for the Rams if they can win that game.”
Below are more underdogs I’m taking against the spread in Week 15.
Manzano’s NFL Week 15 Betting Tips
*
Buck to the trend: Buccaneers (+2.5) at Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers’ defense might be a bit overrated. They weren’t very good against the Bengals and Ravens earlier this season. Look for Baker Mayfield and his talented Buccaneers’ offense to generate touchdowns and keep this game close in Los Angeles. But the Chargers have been good for bettors because they have covered in six of their past seven games.
Enticing Bet: Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Packers
I’m not high on the Green Bay Packers when it comes to the conversation of top teams in the NFL. They’re very good but a level below the Detroit Lions, Eagles and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC.
I think the Seattle Seahawks are in that second tier with the Packers based on what they’ve done during their four-game winning streak. Coach Mike Macdonald has the defense to frustrate Jordan Love in Seattle.
“It’s one of the better games on the board,” Esposito says. “I think we’ll have a huge handle, but my guess is we’re going to be Seahawks fans on Sunday night. That the public is going to be all over the Packers.”
Moneyline Dog: Colts (+150) at Broncos
The Indianapolis Colts need this game more than the Denver Broncos to keep their playoff hopes alive. I’m expecting them to be at their best after receiving a bye week. Anthony Richardson has his flaws, but I’ll bet on coach Shane Steichen to scheme up a productive game plan with extra time to prepare and give the Broncos’ defense plenty of fits.
Not So Risky: Bengals (-5) at Titans
O.K., so last week wasn’t the game the Bengals exploded and beat up on a bad team to make up for all their frustrating losses in 2024. But they finally won a one-score game after getting a gift in the final minutes against the Cowboys. And they also covered as -5.5 favorites thanks to Ja’Marr Chase’s late touchdown. It won’t be that close against a bad Tennessee Titans team that just lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Stay Away: Panthers (-3) vs. Cowboys
My heart wants to support the Panthers here, but so do many other bettors. There’s suddenly too much love for Young. I can see the Cowboys playing with pride and keeping this game close for a wacky finish that might go in their favor to balance out the drama from Monday night.
Parlay: Chiefs (-205) at Browns; Giants (+16) vs. Ravens; Texans (-3) vs. Dolphins
Sticking with the trend of taking the Chiefs on the moneyline for a parlay. I just won’t do it with the Ravens. I wouldn’t be able to look at myself in the mirror if I had two heavy favorites on the moneyline here. For the sake of good juju, I’ll take the Giants at +16. I know Brian Daboll’s team stinks, but that’s a big spread for the Ravens to cover. Let me have fun with this parlay, they rarely hit anyway. And I’m still mad at the Dolphins for not covering on Thanksgiving night in Green Bay. Give me the Texans at home after a bye week.
Survivor Pool: Jaguars (+140) vs. Jets
This might be a good week to take a bad team if you’ve gotten this far in your respective survivor pool. But I know, it’s never easy to bet on the Jaguars. If the Jaguars blow it here against a struggling New York Jets team that has lost nine of their past 10 games, I’ll stop making survivor pool picks. I probably should have stopped a long time ago, but I’ve only been wrong once in this category this season and have chosen a different team every week … 95% sure.
Best Over/Under Total: Packers-Seahawks (over 45.5, -112)
I have struggled in this category for the past month. Can’t believe I went under for that epic shootout between the Bills and Rams. But I’ll go over for a potential high-scoring affair between the Packers and Seahawks.
More NFL Week 15 Betting Stories
