We’ve seen a lot of odds movement this week ahead of the NFL divisional round playoffs, with the Lions spread moving from -7.5 at the open to -9.5, the Chiefs moving from -7.5 to -8.5 and the Ravens completely flipping the line against the Bills, moving from +1.5 underdogs to -1 favorites.
Now, with snowy conditions expected in Philly for Eagles vs Rams, we’re also seeing an OVER/UNDER make a move.
The total for Eagles vs Rams was initially set at 45.5 to start the week at BetMGM Sportsbook but has since moved to 44.0 points. That means the teams need to combine for 44 or more points for the OVER to hit or 43 or fewer for the UNDER to win.
Many factors likely contributed to this, including the total number of bets made and the total amount of money wagered on each bet. But weather also likely played a factor here.
The forecast for Philly when the Eagles host the Rams at 3 PM ET on Sunday calls for 3-5 inches of snow with a high of 33 degrees. The Eagles are a run-first team, leading the NFL in rushing attempts per game (36.4) and second in rushing yards per game (178.7) during the regular season. In nasty weather, you can expect both them and the Rams to keep the ball on the ground, thus keeping the clock running and making it a lower-scoring affair.
Rams quarterback Matt Stafford has also struggled in outdoor games in adverse conditions throughout his career. His teams are 1-8 in games played outdoors in the snow or rain and he has completed just 54.6 percent of his passes with 14 TDs vs 11 INTs in those situations, according to Tucker Bagley.
The last time these teams played in Week 12, the Eagles pounded the Rams on the ground, racking up 314 rushing yards, including 255 from Saquon Barkley. The final score was 37-20, which in this case would smash the over. But that game was played in LA in a dome, not outdoors with the snow we expect this weekend.
The Eagles are -6 points favorites over the Rams in this game at BetMGM. Earlier in the week, SI NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan bet the Eagles to cover at -6.5 points. He explained why in his betting preview. Here's a snippet from it:
The Rams aren’t a run-first team, rushing the ball 26.2 times per game (20th in the NFL) and racking up 103.1 rushing yards per game (24th). They may have to adjust that game plan, however, given the weather report and Stafford’s historical struggles in these conditions.
It’s always fun watching a team play in the snow, but it certainly impacts the game plan. With the Eagles' run-first mentality and the Rams needing to keep Barkley off the field as much as possible, we could be in for a slugfest in the trenches come Sunday.
Oddsmakers seem to agree based on the line movement.
More NFL Divisional Round Betting Stories
